Seasonality Dashboard

Monthly Return

A clean 10-year calendar-month view for the major market indices available in your dataset, so you can quickly see which months have historically added tailwind and which ones have been weaker.

Data through May 2026 10Y history Method: month-end close vs previous month-end close Current partial month excluded
What to watch Average return + deviation

The horizontal bar shows the average monthly return, and the band around it shows how wide the historical moves have been.

How to read Heatmap confirms consistency

Use the heatmap to check whether a strong month is broadly reliable or just driven by one standout year.

India

Nifty 50

April has been the strongest month on average (+3.76%), while March has been the weakest (-1.44%) across 119 completed monthly observations.

Best month Apr +3.76%
Weakest month Mar -1.44%
Best win rate Apr 80%
Positive months 56% 119 observations
United States

S&P 500

November has been the strongest month on average (+4.15%), while September has been the weakest (-1.34%) across 119 completed monthly observations.

Best month Nov +4.15%
Weakest month Sep -1.34%
Best win rate Jul 100%
Positive months 68% 119 observations
India

Nifty 50

Jul 2016 to May 2026 · 119 completed months · average monthly return +0.99%

Best: April +3.76% Weakest: March -1.44%

Average return with standard deviation

Each row shows the average monthly return from zero, with the horizontal band showing +/- 1 standard deviation.

Stronger average Weaker average
Apr +3.76% · +/- 4.55%
80% win rate
Jul +3.08% · +/- 4.37%
80% win rate
Nov +1.91% · +/- 4.56%
60% win rate
Jun +1.60% · +/- 3.74%
56% win rate
Dec +1.55% · +/- 3.62%
50% win rate
Aug +1.44% · +/- 3.15%
60% win rate
Oct +0.91% · +/- 4.11%
70% win rate
May +0.76% · +/- 2.84%
50% win rate
Jan -0.14% · +/- 2.61%
20% win rate
Sep -0.27% · +/- 3.10%
50% win rate
Feb -1.17% · +/- 3.97%
30% win rate
Mar -1.44% · +/- 8.85%
70% win rate

Year-by-year monthly heatmap

The bottom average row makes it easy to compare the seasonal bias across the full calendar.

Positive Negative
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg
2016 — — — — — — +4.2% +1.7% -2.0% +0.3% -4.8% -0.5% -0.2%
2017 +4.6% +3.7% +3.3% +1.4% +3.4% -1.0% +5.8% -1.6% -1.3% +5.6% -1.1% +3.0% +2.2%
2018 +4.7% -4.9% -3.6% +6.2% -0.0% -0.2% +6.0% +2.9% -6.4% -5.0% +4.7% -0.1% +0.3%
2019 -0.3% -0.4% +7.2% +1.5% +1.5% -1.1% -5.7% -0.9% +4.1% +3.5% +1.5% +0.9% +1.0%
2020 -1.7% -6.4% -23.2% +14.7% -2.8% +7.5% +7.5% +2.8% -1.2% +3.5% +11.4% +7.8% +1.7%
2021 -2.5% +6.6% +1.1% -0.4% +6.5% +0.9% +0.3% +8.7% +2.8% +0.3% -3.9% +2.2% +1.9%
2022 -0.1% -3.1% +4.0% -2.1% -3.0% -4.8% +8.7% +3.5% -3.7% +5.4% +4.1% -3.5% +0.4%
2023 -2.4% -2.0% +0.3% +4.1% +2.6% +3.5% +2.9% -2.5% +2.0% -2.8% +5.5% +7.9% +1.6%
2024 -0.0% +1.2% +1.6% +1.2% -0.3% +6.6% +3.9% +1.1% +2.3% -6.2% -0.3% -2.0% +0.8%
2025 -0.6% -5.9% +6.3% +3.5% +1.7% +3.1% -2.9% -1.4% +0.8% +4.5% +1.9% -0.3% +0.9%
2026 -3.1% -0.6% -11.3% +7.5% -1.9% — — — — — — — -1.9%
Avg -0.1% -1.2% -1.4% +3.8% +0.8% +1.6% +3.1% +1.4% -0.3% +0.9% +1.9% +1.6% +1.0%

Top 3 months

  1. April +3.76%
  2. July +3.08%
  3. November +1.91%

Bottom 3 months

  1. March -1.44%
  2. February -1.17%
  3. September -0.27%
Month Avg Return Std Dev Win Rate Median Best Worst Obs.
April +3.76% +/- 4.55% 80% +2.50% +14.68% -2.07% 10
July +3.08% +/- 4.37% 80% +4.07% +8.73% -5.69% 10
November +1.91% +/- 4.56% 60% +1.69% +11.39% -4.79% 10
June +1.60% +/- 3.74% 56% +0.89% +7.53% -4.85% 9
December +1.55% +/- 3.62% 50% +0.40% +7.94% -3.48% 10
August +1.44% +/- 3.15% 60% +1.43% +8.69% -2.53% 10
October +0.91% +/- 4.11% 70% +1.91% +5.59% -6.22% 10
May +0.76% +/- 2.84% 50% +0.73% +6.50% -3.03% 10
January -0.14% +/- 2.61% 20% -0.43% +4.72% -3.10% 10
September -0.27% +/- 3.10% 50% -0.24% +4.09% -6.42% 10
February -1.17% +/- 3.97% 30% -1.29% +6.56% -6.36% 10
March -1.44% +/- 8.85% 70% +1.34% +7.20% -23.25% 10
United States

S&P 500

Jul 2016 to May 2026 · 119 completed months · average monthly return +1.18%

Best: November +4.15% Weakest: September -1.34%

Average return with standard deviation

Each row shows the average monthly return from zero, with the horizontal band showing +/- 1 standard deviation.

Stronger average Weaker average
Nov +4.15% · +/- 3.46%
90% win rate
Jul +3.37% · +/- 2.27%
100% win rate
Apr +2.12% · +/- 6.05%
70% win rate
Jan +2.06% · +/- 3.65%
70% win rate
Jun +2.05% · +/- 4.31%
89% win rate
May +1.82% · +/- 3.53%
90% win rate
Aug +0.92% · +/- 3.02%
60% win rate
Oct +0.66% · +/- 4.32%
50% win rate
Dec +0.05% · +/- 4.36%
60% win rate
Feb -0.59% · +/- 3.98%
40% win rate
Mar -0.99% · +/- 5.19%
50% win rate
Sep -1.34% · +/- 3.93%
50% win rate

Year-by-year monthly heatmap

The bottom average row makes it easy to compare the seasonal bias across the full calendar.

Positive Negative
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg
2016 — — — — — — +3.6% -0.1% -0.1% -1.9% +3.4% +1.8% +1.1%
2017 +1.8% +3.7% -0.0% +0.9% +1.2% +0.5% +1.9% +0.1% +1.9% +2.2% +2.8% +1.0% +1.5%
2018 +5.6% -3.9% -2.7% +0.3% +2.2% +0.5% +3.6% +3.0% +0.4% -6.9% +1.8% -9.2% -0.4%
2019 +7.9% +3.0% +1.8% +3.9% -6.6% +6.9% +1.3% -1.8% +1.7% +2.0% +3.4% +2.9% +2.2%
2020 -0.2% -8.4% -12.5% +12.7% +4.5% +1.8% +5.5% +7.0% -3.9% -2.8% +10.8% +3.7% +1.5%
2021 -1.1% +2.6% +4.2% +5.2% +0.5% +2.2% +2.3% +2.9% -4.8% +6.9% -0.8% +4.4% +2.0%
2022 -5.3% -3.1% +3.6% -8.8% +0.0% -8.4% +9.1% -4.2% -9.3% +8.0% +5.4% -5.9% -1.6%
2023 +6.2% -2.6% +3.5% +1.5% +0.2% +6.5% +3.1% -1.8% -4.9% -2.2% +8.9% +4.4% +1.9%
2024 +1.6% +5.2% +3.1% -4.2% +4.8% +3.5% +1.1% +2.3% +2.0% -1.0% +5.7% -2.5% +1.8%
2025 +2.7% -1.4% -5.8% -0.8% +6.2% +5.0% +2.2% +1.9% +3.5% +2.3% +0.1% -0.1% +1.3%
2026 +1.4% -0.9% -5.1% +10.4% +5.1% — — — — — — — +2.2%
Avg +2.1% -0.6% -1.0% +2.1% +1.8% +2.0% +3.4% +0.9% -1.3% +0.7% +4.2% +0.1% +1.2%

Top 3 months

  1. November +4.15%
  2. July +3.37%
  3. April +2.12%

Bottom 3 months

  1. September -1.34%
  2. March -0.99%
  3. February -0.59%
Month Avg Return Std Dev Win Rate Median Best Worst Obs.
November +4.15% +/- 3.46% 90% +3.41% +10.75% -0.83% 10
July +3.37% +/- 2.27% 100% +2.69% +9.11% +1.13% 10
April +2.12% +/- 6.05% 70% +1.19% +12.68% -8.80% 10
January +2.06% +/- 3.65% 70% +1.69% +7.87% -5.26% 10
June +2.05% +/- 4.31% 89% +2.22% +6.89% -8.39% 9
May +1.82% +/- 3.53% 90% +1.66% +6.15% -6.58% 10
August +0.92% +/- 3.02% 60% +0.98% +7.01% -4.24% 10
October +0.66% +/- 4.32% 50% +0.53% +7.99% -6.94% 10
December +0.05% +/- 4.36% 60% +1.40% +4.42% -9.18% 10
February -0.59% +/- 3.98% 40% -1.15% +5.17% -8.41% 10
March -0.99% +/- 5.19% 50% +0.88% +4.24% -12.51% 10
September -1.34% +/- 3.93% 50% +0.15% +3.53% -9.34% 10
Market Guide

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