| Intrinsic Valuation of: XEL | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 3 | Market Cap | $40B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 20 | Total Asset | $70B | |||||
| 2022 | $-2B | - (-) | Net Income | $2B | Total Debt | $27B | |||||
| 2023 | $-706M | 65.6% (69.9%) | EBITDA | $6B | Total Liab | $51B | |||||
| 2024 | $-527M | 25.4% (19.6%) | Opr Margin | 0.18 | Debt/Equity | 1.40 | |||||
| 2025 | $-3B | -416.7% (-446.1%) | PreTax Margin | 8.96 | BV/Share | 34 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $-2B | -108.6% (-118.9%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (4.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $-2B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $30 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $-2B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $-2B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $-2B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $-2B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $-2B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $-40B | Net Worth/Share | $34 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $-34B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $179M | $-106 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $27B | WACC | 7.3% | -99 | -102 | -107 | -112 | -119 | |||
| Equity Value | $-61B | 7.4% | -98 | -102 | -106 | -112 | -118 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 576,761,024 | 7.4% | -98 | -101 | -106 | -111 | -118 | ||||
| 7.9% | -94 | -97 | -100 | -104 | -110 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $-106 | 8.4% | -90 | -93 | -96 | -99 | -103 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||