| Intrinsic Valuation of: WMG | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 1 | Market Cap | $17B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 40 | Total Asset | $10B | |||||
| 2022 | $416M | - (-) | Net Income | $365M | Total Debt | $4B | |||||
| 2023 | $446M | 7.2% (5.1%) | EBITDA | $1B | Total Liab | $9B | |||||
| 2024 | $451M | 1.1% (-5.0%) | Opr Margin | 13.84 | Debt/Equity | 5.77 | |||||
| 2025 | $344M | -23.7% (-26.9%) | PreTax Margin | 11.42 | BV/Share | -29 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $414M | 3.5% (-8.9%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 8.77% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (3.5%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $378M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $8 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $390M | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $402M | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $414M | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $425M | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $435M | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $7B | Net Worth/Share | $5 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $6B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $532M | $16 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $4B | WACC | 6.8% | 26 | 30 | 35 | 42 | 50 | |||
| Equity Value | $2B | 7.8% | 17 | 20 | 23 | 28 | 33 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 146,235,215 | 8.8% | 11 | 13 | 16 | 18 | 21 | ||||
| 9.8% | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $16 | 10.8% | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||