| Intrinsic Valuation of: ULTA | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 26 | Market Cap | $21B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 19 | Total Asset | $6B | |||||
| 2022 | $887M | - (-) | Net Income | $1B | Total Debt | $0 | |||||
| 2023 | $1B | 31.9% (11.5%) | EBITDA | $2B | Total Liab | $4B | |||||
| 2024 | $1B | -11.0% (-18.9%) | Opr Margin | 0.14 | Debt/Equity | - | |||||
| 2025 | $964M | -7.4% (-8.1%) | PreTax Margin | 13.98 | BV/Share | 55 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $1B | 4.5% (-5.2%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (4.5%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $1B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $229 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $1B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $26B | Net Worth/Share | $55 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $22B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $703M | $510 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $0 | WACC | 7.3% | 451 | 483 | 521 | 567 | 627 | |||
| Equity Value | $23B | 7.4% | 447 | 478 | 515 | 561 | 619 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 44,945,600 | 7.4% | 443 | 474 | 510 | 555 | 611 | ||||
| 7.9% | 410 | 435 | 464 | 500 | 543 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $510 | 8.4% | 381 | 402 | 426 | 455 | 490 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||