| Intrinsic Valuation of: ULTA | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2021 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 26 | Market Cap | $22B | |||||
| 2022 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 19 | Total Asset | $7B | |||||
| 2023 | $1B | - (-) | Net Income | $1B | Total Debt | $0 | |||||
| 2024 | $1B | -11.0% (-18.9%) | EBITDA | $2B | Total Liab | $4B | |||||
| 2025 | $964M | -7.4% (-8.1%) | Opr Margin | 12.50 | Debt/Equity | - | |||||
| 2026 | $1B | 10.8% (1.0%) | PreTax Margin | 12.50 | BV/Share | 54 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $1B | 3.5% (-8.7%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 8.38% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (3.5%) | ||||||||||
| 2027 | $1B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $230 | ||||||||
| 2028 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2032 | $1B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $22B | Net Worth/Share | $64 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $19B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $424M | $446 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $0 | WACC | 6.5% | 545 | 592 | 651 | 726 | 826 | |||
| Equity Value | $19B | 7.5% | 458 | 489 | 526 | 572 | 628 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 43,560,416 | 8.4% | 395 | 417 | 442 | 472 | 508 | ||||
| 9.4% | 348 | 363 | 381 | 402 | 427 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $446 | 10.4% | 310 | 322 | 336 | 351 | 368 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||