| Intrinsic Valuation of: UAL | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 11 | Market Cap | $26B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 7 | Total Asset | $74B | |||||
| 2022 | $-40M | - (-) | Net Income | $3B | Total Debt | $25B | |||||
| 2023 | $1B | 3217.5% (1808.3%) | EBITDA | $8B | Total Liab | $61B | |||||
| 2024 | $-260M | -120.9% (-117.4%) | Opr Margin | 0.09 | Debt/Equity | 1.99 | |||||
| 2025 | $4B | 1573.1% (1486.7%) | PreTax Margin | 6.67 | BV/Share | 17 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $1B | 1556.6% (1059.2%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (25.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $5B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $98 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $6B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $7B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $9B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $12B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $15B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $304B | Net Worth/Share | $39 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $238B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $9B | $678 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $25B | WACC | 7.3% | 583 | 634 | 695 | 770 | 865 | |||
| Equity Value | $222B | 7.4% | 577 | 627 | 686 | 760 | 852 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 326,600,992 | 7.4% | 571 | 620 | 678 | 750 | 840 | ||||
| 7.9% | 518 | 558 | 605 | 662 | 732 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $678 | 8.4% | 472 | 506 | 545 | 591 | 647 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||