| Intrinsic Valuation of: UAL | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 11 | Market Cap | $30B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 8 | Total Asset | $76B | |||||
| 2022 | $1B | - (-) | Net Income | $3B | Total Debt | $21B | |||||
| 2023 | $-260M | -120.9% (-117.4%) | EBITDA | $8B | Total Liab | $61B | |||||
| 2024 | $4B | 1573.1% (1486.7%) | Opr Margin | 8.42 | Debt/Equity | 1.35 | |||||
| 2025 | $3B | -33.2% (-35.5%) | PreTax Margin | 6.44 | BV/Share | 25 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $2B | 15.0% (444.6%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 8.04% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (15.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $3B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $100 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $4B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $4B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $4B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $4B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $77B | Net Worth/Share | $47 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $65B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $6B | $157 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $21B | WACC | 6.5% | 188 | 209 | 235 | 269 | 313 | |||
| Equity Value | $51B | 7.4% | 153 | 167 | 184 | 205 | 232 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 324,569,728 | 8.3% | 126 | 136 | 148 | 163 | 180 | ||||
| 9.2% | 106 | 114 | 122 | 132 | 144 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $157 | 10.0% | 90 | 96 | 102 | 110 | 118 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||