| Intrinsic Valuation of: UAL | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 10 | Market Cap | $34B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 11 | Total Asset | $74B | |||||
| 2022 | $-40M | - (-) | Net Income | $3B | Total Debt | $25B | |||||
| 2023 | $1B | 3217.5% (1808.3%) | EBITDA | $8B | Total Liab | $61B | |||||
| 2024 | $-260M | -120.9% (-117.4%) | Opr Margin | 0.09 | Debt/Equity | 1.99 | |||||
| 2025 | $4B | 1573.1% (1486.7%) | PreTax Margin | 6.67 | BV/Share | 17 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $1B | 1556.6% (1059.2%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (25.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $5B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $89 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $6B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $7B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $9B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $12B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $15B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $304B | Net Worth/Share | $39 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $238B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $9B | $684 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $25B | WACC | 7.3% | 588 | 639 | 701 | 777 | 872 | |||
| Equity Value | $222B | 7.4% | 582 | 632 | 693 | 766 | 859 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 323,732,000 | 7.4% | 576 | 625 | 684 | 757 | 847 | ||||
| 7.9% | 522 | 563 | 611 | 668 | 739 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $684 | 8.4% | 476 | 510 | 549 | 596 | 652 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||