| Intrinsic Valuation of: TSLA | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 2 | Market Cap | $969B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 172 | Total Asset | $122B | |||||
| 2022 | $3B | - (-) | Net Income | $7B | Total Debt | $6B | |||||
| 2023 | $8B | 116.8% (43.3%) | EBITDA | $15B | Total Liab | $48B | |||||
| 2024 | $4B | -42.3% (-51.4%) | Opr Margin | 0.08 | Debt/Equity | 0.08 | |||||
| 2025 | $4B | -17.8% (-18.6%) | PreTax Margin | 7.59 | BV/Share | 22 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $5B | 18.9% (-8.9%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (18.9%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $4B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $16 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $5B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $6B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $7B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $9B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $10B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $210B | Net Worth/Share | $23 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $168B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $16B | $55 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $6B | WACC | 7.3% | 49 | 52 | 57 | 62 | 69 | |||
| Equity Value | $179B | 7.4% | 48 | 52 | 56 | 61 | 68 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 3,220,960,000 | 7.4% | 48 | 51 | 55 | 60 | 67 | ||||
| 7.9% | 44 | 47 | 50 | 54 | 59 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $55 | 8.4% | 41 | 43 | 46 | 49 | 53 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||