|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Intrinsic Valuation of: SNY |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y |
|
Key Statistics |
|
|
Year |
|
FCF |
FCF (FCF/Revenue) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2020 |
|
- |
- |
|
EPS (FY) |
3 |
|
Market Cap |
$119B |
|
|
2021 |
|
- |
- (-) |
|
P/E Ratio |
17 |
|
Total Asset |
$133B |
|
|
2022 |
|
$8B |
- (-) |
|
Net Income |
$6B |
|
Total Debt |
$12B |
|
|
2023 |
|
$8B |
-0.7% (-4.1%) |
|
EBITDA |
$11B |
|
Total Liab |
$55B |
|
|
2024 |
|
$7B |
-12.7% (-14.9%) |
|
Opr Margin |
0.21 |
|
Debt/Equity |
0.15 |
|
|
2025 |
|
$6B |
-19.9% (-24.8%) |
|
PreTax Margin |
19.67 |
|
BV/Share |
5 |
|
|
5Y Average FCF |
|
$8B |
-11.1% (-14.6%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overall Market Assumptions: |
|
|
Assumptions: |
|
|
|
P/E for No-Growth Company: |
7.0 |
|
|
|
Perpetual Growth Rate (g): |
2.5% |
|
|
|
Historical US Bond Yield: |
4.4% |
|
|
|
Discount Rate (WACC): |
7.4% |
|
|
|
Current US Bond Yield: |
3.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y |
|
Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value |
|
|
Year |
|
FCF Projection (4.0%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2026 |
|
$6B |
|
|
MBG Intrinsic Value |
$26 |
|
|
2027 |
|
$6B |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2028 |
|
$7B |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2029 |
|
$7B |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2030 |
|
$7B |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2031 |
|
$7B |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Terminal Value |
|
$155B |
|
|
Net Worth/Share |
$32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DCF Valuation |
|
DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Enterprise Value |
$132B |
|
|
|
Growth Rate |
|
|
(+) Cash & Cash Equivalents |
$7B |
|
|
$53 |
1.5% |
2.0% |
2.5% |
3.0% |
3.5% |
|
|
(-) Total Debt |
$12B |
|
WACC |
7.3% |
46 |
50 |
54 |
59 |
65 |
|
|
Equity Value |
$128B |
|
7.4% |
46 |
49 |
53 |
58 |
64 |
|
|
Shares Outstanding |
2,435,069,952 |
|
7.4% |
45 |
49 |
53 |
57 |
64 |
|
|
|
|
|
7.9% |
42 |
44 |
48 |
51 |
56 |
|
|
DCF Intrinsic Value |
$53 |
|
8.4% |
38 |
41 |
43 |
46 |
50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|