| Intrinsic Valuation of: SMCI | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 2 | Market Cap | $29B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 27 | Total Asset | $10B | |||||
| 2022 | $65M | - (-) | Net Income | $1B | Total Debt | $2B | |||||
| 2023 | $-486M | -848.4% (-612.4%) | EBITDA | $1B | Total Liab | $4B | |||||
| 2024 | $627M | 229.0% (194.1%) | Opr Margin | 0.08 | Debt/Equity | 0.33 | |||||
| 2025 | $-3B | -516.4% (-297.9%) | PreTax Margin | 7.95 | BV/Share | 9 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $-601M | -378.6% (-238.7%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (4.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $-625M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $16 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $-650M | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $-676M | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $-703M | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $-731M | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $-761M | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $-16B | Net Worth/Share | $9 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $-14B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $2B | $-23 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $2B | WACC | 7.3% | -20 | -22 | -23 | -25 | -28 | |||
| Equity Value | $-14B | 7.4% | -20 | -21 | -23 | -25 | -28 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 596,817,984 | 7.4% | -20 | -21 | -23 | -25 | -27 | ||||
| 7.9% | -18 | -19 | -21 | -22 | -24 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $-23 | 8.4% | -17 | -18 | -19 | -20 | -22 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||