| Intrinsic Valuation of: SMCI | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 2 | Market Cap | $19B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 16 | Total Asset | $14B | |||||
| 2022 | $-486M | - (-) | Net Income | $1B | Total Debt | $5B | |||||
| 2023 | $627M | 229.0% (194.1%) | EBITDA | $1B | Total Liab | $8B | |||||
| 2024 | $-3B | -516.4% (-297.9%) | Opr Margin | 5.70 | Debt/Equity | 0.74 | |||||
| 2025 | $2B | 158.7% (140.0%) | PreTax Margin | 5.43 | BV/Share | 10 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $-234M | 15.0% (12.1%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 10.72% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (15.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $2B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $17 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $2B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $29B | Net Worth/Share | $10 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $24B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $5B | $41 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $5B | WACC | 8.7% | 48 | 51 | 54 | 57 | 61 | |||
| Equity Value | $24B | 9.7% | 42 | 44 | 46 | 49 | 52 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 601,418,482 | 10.7% | 38 | 39 | 41 | 42 | 44 | ||||
| 11.7% | 34 | 35 | 36 | 38 | 39 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $41 | 12.7% | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||