| Intrinsic Valuation of: SHOP | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 1 | Market Cap | $130B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 98 | Total Asset | $15B | |||||
| 2022 | $-186M | - (-) | Net Income | $1B | Total Debt | $0 | |||||
| 2023 | $905M | 586.6% (485.9%) | EBITDA | $2B | Total Liab | $2B | |||||
| 2024 | $2B | 76.5% (40.3%) | Opr Margin | 16.31 | Debt/Equity | - | |||||
| 2025 | $2B | 25.7% (-3.4%) | PreTax Margin | 16.31 | BV/Share | 11 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $1B | 15.0% (174.3%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 14.00% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (15.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $2B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $9 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $3B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $27B | Net Worth/Share | $11 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $22B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $2B | $20 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $0 | WACC | 12.0% | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 25 | |||
| Equity Value | $24B | 12.5% | 21 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 24 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 1,219,581,025 | 13.0% | 20 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 23 | ||||
| 13.5% | 20 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 22 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $20 | 14.0% | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 21 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||