| Intrinsic Valuation of: SHOP | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 1 | Market Cap | $145B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 92 | Total Asset | $14B | |||||
| 2022 | $485M | - (-) | Net Income | $2B | Total Debt | $0 | |||||
| 2023 | $-186M | -138.4% (-131.6%) | EBITDA | $1B | Total Liab | $2B | |||||
| 2024 | $905M | 586.6% (485.9%) | Opr Margin | 0.12 | Debt/Equity | - | |||||
| 2025 | $2B | 76.5% (40.3%) | PreTax Margin | 12.11 | BV/Share | 9 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $700M | 174.9% (131.5%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (25.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $2B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $11 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $4B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $5B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $6B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $127B | Net Worth/Share | $9 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $99B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $1B | $83 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $0 | WACC | 7.3% | 72 | 78 | 85 | 93 | 104 | |||
| Equity Value | $101B | 7.4% | 71 | 77 | 84 | 92 | 102 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 1,218,140,032 | 7.4% | 71 | 76 | 83 | 91 | 101 | ||||
| 7.9% | 65 | 69 | 75 | 81 | 89 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $83 | 8.4% | 60 | 63 | 68 | 73 | 79 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||