| Intrinsic Valuation of: SFM | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 5 | Market Cap | $8B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 16 | Total Asset | $4B | |||||
| 2022 | $247M | - (-) | Net Income | $524M | Total Debt | $0 | |||||
| 2023 | $240M | -3.1% (-9.2%) | EBITDA | $995M | Total Liab | $3B | |||||
| 2024 | $415M | 73.0% (53.3%) | Opr Margin | 7.86 | Debt/Equity | - | |||||
| 2025 | $468M | 12.8% (-1.2%) | PreTax Margin | 7.84 | BV/Share | 9 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $342M | 15.0% (14.3%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.21% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (15.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $495M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $47 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $556M | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $612M | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $658M | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $691M | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $708M | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $15B | Net Worth/Share | $15 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $13B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $257M | $141 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $0 | WACC | 6.5% | 139 | 151 | 166 | 185 | 211 | |||
| Equity Value | $13B | 7.2% | 122 | 131 | 142 | 155 | 172 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 94,044,301 | 7.8% | 109 | 116 | 124 | 134 | 146 | ||||
| 8.5% | 99 | 104 | 110 | 118 | 127 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $141 | 9.2% | 90 | 94 | 99 | 105 | 112 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||