| Intrinsic Valuation of: SBUX | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 1 | Market Cap | $122B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 82 | Total Asset | $32B | |||||
| 2022 | $3B | - (-) | Net Income | $2B | Total Debt | $15B | |||||
| 2023 | $4B | 43.8% (28.9%) | EBITDA | $5B | Total Liab | $40B | |||||
| 2024 | $3B | -9.7% (-10.2%) | Opr Margin | 9.63 | Debt/Equity | -1.80 | |||||
| 2025 | $2B | -26.4% (-28.4%) | PreTax Margin | 8.17 | BV/Share | -10 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $3B | 4.0% (-3.2%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 8.32% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (4.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $3B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $12 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $3B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $55B | Net Worth/Share | $-7 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $48B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $3B | $32 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $15B | WACC | 6.5% | 41 | 45 | 51 | 58 | 68 | |||
| Equity Value | $36B | 7.5% | 33 | 36 | 39 | 43 | 49 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 1,139,700,000 | 8.4% | 27 | 29 | 31 | 34 | 38 | ||||
| 9.4% | 22 | 24 | 25 | 28 | 30 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $32 | 10.3% | 19 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 24 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||