| Intrinsic Valuation of: RIVN | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | -3 | Market Cap | $16B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | - | Total Asset | $15B | |||||
| 2022 | $-4B | - (-) | Net Income | $-5B | Total Debt | $4B | |||||
| 2023 | $-6B | -45.4% (95.2%) | EBITDA | $-3B | Total Liab | $9B | |||||
| 2024 | $-6B | 8.2% (65.7%) | Opr Margin | -0.94 | Debt/Equity | 0.68 | |||||
| 2025 | $-3B | 51.5% (56.7%) | PreTax Margin | -100.74 | BV/Share | 5 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $-5B | 4.8% (72.5%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (4.8%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $-5B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $-29 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $-5B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $-6B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $-6B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $-6B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $-6B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $-135B | Net Worth/Share | $5 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $-115B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $5B | $-94 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $4B | WACC | 7.3% | -83 | -89 | -96 | -105 | -116 | |||
| Equity Value | $-114B | 7.4% | -82 | -88 | -95 | -104 | -115 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 1,209,520,000 | 7.4% | -81 | -87 | -94 | -103 | -113 | ||||
| 7.9% | -75 | -80 | -85 | -92 | -100 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $-94 | 8.4% | -69 | -73 | -78 | -83 | -90 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||