| Intrinsic Valuation of: PODD | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 6 | Market Cap | $21B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 54 | Total Asset | $3B | |||||
| 2022 | $-191M | - (-) | Net Income | $418M | Total Debt | $1B | |||||
| 2023 | $-38M | 79.9% (83.1%) | EBITDA | $424M | Total Liab | $2B | |||||
| 2024 | $36M | 195.3% (173.3%) | Opr Margin | 0.15 | Debt/Equity | 1.07 | |||||
| 2025 | $296M | 711.8% (565.0%) | PreTax Margin | 12.85 | BV/Share | 15 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $26M | 329.0% (273.8%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (25.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $370M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $50 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $463M | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $579M | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $723M | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $904M | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $1B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $24B | Net Worth/Share | $17 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $18B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $953M | $257 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $1B | WACC | 7.3% | 223 | 241 | 263 | 290 | 324 | |||
| Equity Value | $18B | 7.4% | 220 | 238 | 260 | 286 | 319 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 70,374,896 | 7.4% | 218 | 236 | 257 | 282 | 315 | ||||
| 7.9% | 199 | 213 | 231 | 251 | 276 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $257 | 8.4% | 183 | 195 | 209 | 225 | 245 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||