| Intrinsic Valuation of: PDD | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 10 | Market Cap | $136B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 10 | Total Asset | $630B | |||||
| 2022 | $48B | - (-) | Net Income | $98B | Total Debt | $0 | |||||
| 2023 | $94B | 95.5% (3.1%) | EBITDA | $122B | Total Liab | $217B | |||||
| 2024 | $121B | 29.3% (-18.7%) | Opr Margin | 21.56 | Debt/Equity | - | |||||
| 2025 | $106B | -12.5% (-20.2%) | PreTax Margin | 21.56 | BV/Share | 290 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $92B | 15.0% (-11.9%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.00% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (15.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $117B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $87 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $132B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $145B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $156B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $163B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $167B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $3,793B | Net Worth/Share | $290 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $3,216B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $109B | $2,336 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $0 | WACC | 6.5% | 2,197 | 2,386 | 2,622 | 2,925 | 3,329 | |||
| Equity Value | $3,325B | 7.1% | 1,958 | 2,102 | 2,277 | 2,494 | 2,770 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 1,423,396,462 | 7.8% | 1,764 | 1,876 | 2,009 | 2,170 | 2,369 | ||||
| 8.4% | 1,606 | 1,695 | 1,799 | 1,922 | 2,071 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $2,336 | 9.0% | 1,476 | 1,548 | 1,632 | 1,729 | 1,844 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||