| Intrinsic Valuation of: PDD | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 9 | Market Cap | $150B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 11 | Total Asset | $505B | |||||
| 2022 | $25B | - (-) | Net Income | $112B | Total Debt | $0 | |||||
| 2023 | $48B | 87.8% (35.1%) | EBITDA | $135B | Total Liab | $192B | |||||
| 2024 | $94B | 95.5% (3.1%) | Opr Margin | 0.28 | Debt/Equity | - | |||||
| 2025 | $121B | 29.3% (-18.7%) | PreTax Margin | 27.53 | BV/Share | 221 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $72B | 70.8% (6.5%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (25.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $151B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $84 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $189B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $236B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $295B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $369B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $461B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $9,594B | Net Worth/Share | $221 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $7,516B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $58B | $5,335 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $0 | WACC | 7.3% | 4,644 | 5,011 | 5,454 | 6,000 | 6,688 | |||
| Equity Value | $7,573B | 7.4% | 4,600 | 4,960 | 5,394 | 5,926 | 6,596 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 1,419,650,048 | 7.4% | 4,558 | 4,910 | 5,335 | 5,855 | 6,507 | ||||
| 7.9% | 4,168 | 4,459 | 4,804 | 5,219 | 5,727 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $5,335 | 8.4% | 3,836 | 4,079 | 4,364 | 4,700 | 5,105 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||