| Intrinsic Valuation of: PCAR | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 5 | Market Cap | $58B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 23 | Total Asset | $44B | |||||
| 2022 | $2B | - (-) | Net Income | $2B | Total Debt | $11B | |||||
| 2023 | $3B | 78.9% (46.8%) | EBITDA | $4B | Total Liab | $25B | |||||
| 2024 | $3B | -1.1% (3.2%) | Opr Margin | 10.41 | Debt/Equity | 0.57 | |||||
| 2025 | $3B | 4.6% (23.8%) | PreTax Margin | 10.41 | BV/Share | 37 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $3B | 11.4% (24.6%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 8.32% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (11.4%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $3B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $42 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $4B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $4B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $4B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $4B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $4B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $76B | Net Worth/Share | $37 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $65B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $6B | $114 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $11B | WACC | 6.5% | 141 | 154 | 170 | 192 | 220 | |||
| Equity Value | $60B | 7.5% | 116 | 125 | 136 | 148 | 165 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 526,286,229 | 8.4% | 99 | 105 | 112 | 121 | 131 | ||||
| 9.4% | 85 | 90 | 95 | 101 | 108 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $114 | 10.3% | 75 | 78 | 82 | 87 | 92 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||