| Intrinsic Valuation of: PCAR | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 7 | Market Cap | $52B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 15 | Total Asset | $43B | |||||
| 2022 | $554M | - (-) | Net Income | $4B | Total Debt | $10B | |||||
| 2023 | $2B | 195.5% (141.1%) | EBITDA | $6B | Total Liab | $26B | |||||
| 2024 | $3B | 78.9% (46.8%) | Opr Margin | 0.15 | Debt/Equity | 0.59 | |||||
| 2025 | $3B | -1.1% (3.2%) | PreTax Margin | 14.53 | BV/Share | 33 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $2B | 91.1% (63.7%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (25.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $4B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $59 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $5B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $6B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $7B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $9B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $11B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $230B | Net Worth/Share | $33 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $180B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $7B | $336 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $10B | WACC | 7.3% | 292 | 315 | 344 | 379 | 424 | |||
| Equity Value | $177B | 7.4% | 289 | 312 | 340 | 375 | 418 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 524,959,008 | 7.4% | 286 | 309 | 336 | 370 | 412 | ||||
| 7.9% | 261 | 280 | 302 | 329 | 362 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $336 | 8.4% | 239 | 255 | 273 | 295 | 321 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||