|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Intrinsic Valuation of: PARAA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y |
|
Key Statistics |
|
|
Year |
|
FCF |
FCF (FCF/Revenue) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2020 |
|
- |
- |
|
EPS (FY) |
-8 |
|
Market Cap |
$9B |
|
|
2021 |
|
- |
- (-) |
|
P/E Ratio |
- |
|
Total Asset |
$46B |
|
|
2022 |
|
$599M |
- (-) |
|
Net Income |
$-6B |
|
Total Debt |
$15B |
|
|
2023 |
|
$-139M |
-123.2% (-122.0%) |
|
EBITDA |
$-5B |
|
Total Liab |
$29B |
|
|
2024 |
|
$147M |
205.8% (207.5%) |
|
Opr Margin |
0.05 |
|
Debt/Equity |
0.86 |
|
|
2025 |
|
$489M |
232.7% (237.7%) |
|
PreTax Margin |
2.08 |
|
BV/Share |
84 |
|
|
5Y Average FCF |
|
$274M |
105.1% (107.7%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overall Market Assumptions: |
|
|
Assumptions: |
|
|
|
P/E for No-Growth Company: |
7.0 |
|
|
|
Perpetual Growth Rate (g): |
2.5% |
|
|
|
Historical US Bond Yield: |
4.4% |
|
|
|
Discount Rate (WACC): |
7.4% |
|
|
|
Current US Bond Yield: |
3.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y |
|
Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value |
|
|
Year |
|
FCF Projection (25.0%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2026 |
|
$611M |
|
|
MBG Intrinsic Value |
$-73 |
|
|
2027 |
|
$764M |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2028 |
|
$955M |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2029 |
|
$1B |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2030 |
|
$1B |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2031 |
|
$2B |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Terminal Value |
|
$39B |
|
|
Net Worth/Share |
$412 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DCF Valuation |
|
DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Enterprise Value |
$30B |
|
|
|
Growth Rate |
|
|
(+) Cash & Cash Equivalents |
$3B |
|
|
$456 |
1.5% |
2.0% |
2.5% |
3.0% |
3.5% |
|
|
(-) Total Debt |
$15B |
|
WACC |
7.3% |
358 |
410 |
472 |
549 |
646 |
|
|
Equity Value |
$19B |
|
7.4% |
352 |
403 |
464 |
539 |
633 |
|
|
Shares Outstanding |
40,702,700 |
|
7.4% |
346 |
396 |
456 |
529 |
621 |
|
|
|
|
|
7.9% |
291 |
332 |
381 |
439 |
511 |
|
|
DCF Intrinsic Value |
$456 |
|
8.4% |
244 |
279 |
319 |
366 |
423 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|