| Intrinsic Valuation of: ORLY | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 3 | Market Cap | $77B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 33 | Total Asset | $15B | |||||
| 2022 | $3B | - (-) | Net Income | $2B | Total Debt | $6B | |||||
| 2023 | $3B | -6.5% (-13.5%) | EBITDA | $4B | Total Liab | $16B | |||||
| 2024 | $2B | -21.6% (-28.5%) | Opr Margin | 0.19 | Debt/Equity | -4.03 | |||||
| 2025 | $2B | -0.1% (-5.4%) | PreTax Margin | 18.13 | BV/Share | -3 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $2B | -9.4% (-15.8%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (4.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $2B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $24 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $3B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $53B | Net Worth/Share | $-2 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $46B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $130M | $47 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $6B | WACC | 7.3% | 41 | 44 | 48 | 53 | 59 | |||
| Equity Value | $40B | 7.4% | 40 | 44 | 48 | 52 | 59 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 854,841,984 | 7.4% | 40 | 43 | 47 | 52 | 58 | ||||
| 7.9% | 36 | 39 | 42 | 46 | 51 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $47 | 8.4% | 33 | 35 | 38 | 41 | 45 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||