| Intrinsic Valuation of: ORLY | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 3 | Market Cap | $73B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 29 | Total Asset | $17B | |||||
| 2022 | $3B | - (-) | Net Income | $3B | Total Debt | $6B | |||||
| 2023 | $2B | -21.6% (-28.5%) | EBITDA | $4B | Total Liab | $17B | |||||
| 2024 | $2B | -0.1% (-5.4%) | Opr Margin | 19.46 | Debt/Equity | -7.88 | |||||
| 2025 | $2B | -21.4% (-26.1%) | PreTax Margin | 18.14 | BV/Share | -2 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $2B | 3.5% (-20.0%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.00% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (3.5%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $2B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $27 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $2B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $47B | Net Worth/Share | $-1 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $40B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $194M | $42 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $6B | WACC | 6.5% | 39 | 43 | 48 | 54 | 63 | |||
| Equity Value | $35B | 7.1% | 34 | 37 | 40 | 45 | 51 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 828,715,079 | 7.8% | 30 | 32 | 35 | 38 | 42 | ||||
| 8.4% | 26 | 28 | 30 | 33 | 36 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $42 | 9.0% | 23 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 31 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||