| Intrinsic Valuation of: ONC | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | -4 | Market Cap | $28B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | - | Total Asset | $6B | |||||
| 2022 | $-2B | - (-) | Net Income | $-645M | Total Debt | $166M | |||||
| 2023 | $-2B | -21.8% (-1.2%) | EBITDA | $-396M | Total Liab | $3B | |||||
| 2024 | $-2B | 10.8% (48.6%) | Opr Margin | -0.15 | Debt/Equity | 0.05 | |||||
| 2025 | $-670M | 61.8% (75.4%) | PreTax Margin | -14.91 | BV/Share | 32 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $-2B | 16.9% (40.9%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (16.9%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $-2B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $-33 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $-2B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $-2B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $-3B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $-3B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $-4B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $-80B | Net Worth/Share | $34 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $-64B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $3B | $-620 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $166M | WACC | 7.3% | -538 | -582 | -634 | -699 | -781 | |||
| Equity Value | $-62B | 7.4% | -533 | -576 | -627 | -691 | -770 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 99,369,400 | 7.4% | -528 | -570 | -620 | -682 | -759 | ||||
| 7.9% | -482 | -516 | -557 | -606 | -667 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $-620 | 8.4% | -442 | -471 | -505 | -545 | -593 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||