| Intrinsic Valuation of: ONC | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 4 | Market Cap | $30B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 66 | Total Asset | $8B | |||||
| 2022 | $-2B | - (-) | Net Income | $287M | Total Debt | $962M | |||||
| 2023 | $-2B | 10.8% (48.6%) | EBITDA | $617M | Total Liab | $4B | |||||
| 2024 | $-670M | 61.8% (75.4%) | Opr Margin | 8.37 | Debt/Equity | 0.22 | |||||
| 2025 | $861M | 228.6% (191.7%) | PreTax Margin | 7.28 | BV/Share | 44 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $-882M | 15.0% (105.2%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.00% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (15.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $990M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $40 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $1B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $32B | Net Worth/Share | $46 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $27B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $5B | $325 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $962M | WACC | 6.5% | 307 | 331 | 361 | 400 | 451 | |||
| Equity Value | $31B | 7.1% | 277 | 295 | 317 | 345 | 380 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 94,900,812 | 7.8% | 252 | 266 | 283 | 304 | 329 | ||||
| 8.4% | 232 | 243 | 257 | 272 | 291 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $325 | 9.0% | 216 | 225 | 235 | 248 | 262 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||