| Intrinsic Valuation of: ODFL | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 5 | Market Cap | $42B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 42 | Total Asset | $5B | |||||
| 2022 | $916M | - (-) | Net Income | $1B | Total Debt | $20M | |||||
| 2023 | $812M | -11.4% (-5.5%) | EBITDA | $2B | Total Liab | $1B | |||||
| 2024 | $888M | 9.4% (10.3%) | Opr Margin | 24.76 | Debt/Equity | 0.00 | |||||
| 2025 | $955M | 7.6% (13.8%) | PreTax Margin | 24.76 | BV/Share | 21 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $893M | -1.8% (6.2%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 1.00% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 9.92% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (-1.8%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $920M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $43 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $908M | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $902M | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $901M | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $905M | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $914M | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $10B | Net Worth/Share | $21 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $10B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $120M | $48 | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $20M | WACC | 7.9% | 61 | 63 | 65 | 67 | 69 | |||
| Equity Value | $10B | 8.9% | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 59 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 207,968,283 | 9.9% | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | ||||
| 10.9% | 43 | 44 | 44 | 45 | 46 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $48 | 11.9% | 39 | 40 | 40 | 41 | 41 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||