| Intrinsic Valuation of: ODFL | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 6 | Market Cap | $36B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 30 | Total Asset | $5B | |||||
| 2022 | $663M | - (-) | Net Income | $1B | Total Debt | $40M | |||||
| 2023 | $916M | 38.3% (16.1%) | EBITDA | $2B | Total Liab | $1B | |||||
| 2024 | $812M | -11.4% (-5.5%) | Opr Margin | 0.27 | Debt/Equity | 0.01 | |||||
| 2025 | $888M | 9.4% (10.3%) | PreTax Margin | 26.55 | BV/Share | 20 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $820M | 12.1% (7.0%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (12.1%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $995M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $49 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $2B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $37B | Net Worth/Share | $20 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $30B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $109M | $142 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $40M | WACC | 7.3% | 125 | 134 | 145 | 159 | 177 | |||
| Equity Value | $30B | 7.4% | 124 | 133 | 144 | 158 | 175 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 211,324,992 | 7.4% | 122 | 132 | 142 | 156 | 172 | ||||
| 7.9% | 112 | 120 | 129 | 139 | 152 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $142 | 8.4% | 104 | 110 | 117 | 126 | 136 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||