| Intrinsic Valuation of: MSTR | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | -22 | Market Cap | $104B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | - | Total Asset | $26B | |||||
| 2022 | $-3B | - (-) | Net Income | $-1B | Total Debt | $7B | |||||
| 2023 | $-287M | 88.7% (88.4%) | EBITDA | $-2B | Total Liab | $8B | |||||
| 2024 | $-2B | -559.0% (-563.0%) | Opr Margin | -0.14 | Debt/Equity | 0.39 | |||||
| 2025 | $-22B | -1069.8% (-1152.6%) | PreTax Margin | -26.98 | BV/Share | -22 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $-7B | -513.4% (-542.4%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (4.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $-7B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $-199 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $-7B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $-8B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $-8B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $-8B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $-8B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $-177B | Net Worth/Share | $70 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $-151B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $38M | $-609 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $7B | WACC | 7.3% | -539 | -576 | -621 | -676 | -745 | |||
| Equity Value | $-158B | 7.4% | -535 | -571 | -615 | -668 | -736 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 259,702,000 | 7.4% | -530 | -566 | -609 | -661 | -727 | ||||
| 7.9% | -491 | -520 | -555 | -596 | -648 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $-609 | 8.4% | -457 | -481 | -510 | -544 | -584 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||