| Intrinsic Valuation of: MAR | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 10 | Market Cap | $93B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 37 | Total Asset | $28B | |||||
| 2022 | $2B | - (-) | Net Income | $3B | Total Debt | $15B | |||||
| 2023 | $3B | 33.8% (17.2%) | EBITDA | $5B | Total Liab | $31B | |||||
| 2024 | $2B | -26.5% (-30.5%) | Opr Margin | 15.81 | Debt/Equity | -3.98 | |||||
| 2025 | $3B | 30.5% (25.1%) | PreTax Margin | 12.72 | BV/Share | -87 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $2B | 9.9% (3.9%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 8.83% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (9.9%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $3B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $85 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $4B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $4B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $58B | Net Worth/Share | $-14 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $50B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $358M | $133 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $15B | WACC | 6.8% | 178 | 197 | 221 | 250 | 288 | |||
| Equity Value | $35B | 7.8% | 141 | 153 | 168 | 187 | 209 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 263,688,623 | 8.8% | 114 | 122 | 133 | 145 | 159 | ||||
| 9.8% | 93 | 99 | 107 | 115 | 125 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $133 | 10.8% | 77 | 82 | 87 | 93 | 100 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||