| Intrinsic Valuation of: MAR | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 9 | Market Cap | $76B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 32 | Total Asset | $26B | |||||
| 2022 | $994M | - (-) | Net Income | $2B | Total Debt | $13B | |||||
| 2023 | $2B | 104.3% (36.3%) | EBITDA | $4B | Total Liab | $29B | |||||
| 2024 | $3B | 33.8% (17.2%) | Opr Margin | 0.15 | Debt/Equity | -4.39 | |||||
| 2025 | $2B | -26.5% (-30.5%) | PreTax Margin | 12.55 | BV/Share | -77 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $2B | 37.2% (7.7%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (25.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $2B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $79 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $4B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $5B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $6B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $8B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $159B | Net Worth/Share | $-11 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $124B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $396M | $407 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $13B | WACC | 7.3% | 348 | 379 | 417 | 464 | 523 | |||
| Equity Value | $111B | 7.4% | 344 | 375 | 412 | 458 | 515 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 273,896,000 | 7.4% | 340 | 371 | 407 | 451 | 507 | ||||
| 7.9% | 307 | 332 | 361 | 397 | 441 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $407 | 8.4% | 279 | 299 | 324 | 353 | 387 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||