| Intrinsic Valuation of: KDP | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 1 | Market Cap | $39B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 21 | Total Asset | $55B | |||||
| 2022 | $2B | - (-) | Net Income | $2B | Total Debt | $13B | |||||
| 2023 | $848M | -65.5% (-67.3%) | EBITDA | $4B | Total Liab | $30B | |||||
| 2024 | $2B | 88.3% (81.7%) | Opr Margin | 22.00 | Debt/Equity | 0.51 | |||||
| 2025 | $1B | -6.8% (-13.9%) | PreTax Margin | 17.46 | BV/Share | -14 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $2B | 5.6% (0.2%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.00% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (5.6%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $2B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $12 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $2B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $44B | Net Worth/Share | $19 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $38B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $1B | $19 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $13B | WACC | 6.5% | 17 | 19 | 22 | 26 | 31 | |||
| Equity Value | $26B | 7.1% | 14 | 16 | 18 | 21 | 24 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 1,360,559,471 | 7.8% | 12 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 19 | ||||
| 8.4% | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 16 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $19 | 9.0% | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||