| Intrinsic Valuation of: KDP | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 1 | Market Cap | $46B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 31 | Total Asset | $53B | |||||
| 2022 | $2B | - (-) | Net Income | $1B | Total Debt | $13B | |||||
| 2023 | $2B | 1.6% (-8.3%) | EBITDA | $3B | Total Liab | $29B | |||||
| 2024 | $848M | -65.5% (-67.3%) | Opr Margin | 0.22 | Debt/Equity | 0.53 | |||||
| 2025 | $2B | 88.3% (81.7%) | PreTax Margin | 16.77 | BV/Share | -14 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $2B | 8.1% (2.0%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (8.1%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $2B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $10 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $3B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $53B | Net Worth/Share | $18 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $44B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $510M | $24 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $13B | WACC | 7.3% | 20 | 22 | 24 | 27 | 31 | |||
| Equity Value | $32B | 7.4% | 19 | 21 | 24 | 27 | 31 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 1,358,189,952 | 7.4% | 19 | 21 | 24 | 27 | 30 | ||||
| 7.9% | 17 | 18 | 20 | 23 | 26 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $24 | 8.4% | 15 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||