| Intrinsic Valuation of: JD | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 1 | Market Cap | $43B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 24 | Total Asset | $695B | |||||
| 2022 | $35B | - (-) | Net Income | $20B | Total Debt | $62B | |||||
| 2023 | $40B | 13.2% (9.2%) | EBITDA | $38B | Total Liab | $401B | |||||
| 2024 | $44B | 12.1% (4.9%) | Opr Margin | 0.28 | Debt/Equity | 0.21 | |||||
| 2025 | $5B | -89.1% (-90.4%) | PreTax Margin | 0.07 | BV/Share | 114 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $31B | 3.5% (-25.4%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.00% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (3.5%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $13B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $12 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $13B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $14B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $14B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $15B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $15B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $341B | Net Worth/Share | $218 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $294B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $137B | $273 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $62B | WACC | 6.5% | 260 | 278 | 301 | 329 | 368 | |||
| Equity Value | $369B | 7.1% | 238 | 251 | 268 | 288 | 315 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 1,350,500,000 | 7.8% | 219 | 230 | 242 | 258 | 277 | ||||
| 8.4% | 204 | 213 | 222 | 234 | 248 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $273 | 9.0% | 192 | 199 | 207 | 216 | 227 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||