| Intrinsic Valuation of: JD | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 4 | Market Cap | $44B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 9 | Total Asset | $698B | |||||
| 2022 | $20B | - (-) | Net Income | $41B | Total Debt | $56B | |||||
| 2023 | $35B | 74.3% (58.6%) | EBITDA | $63B | Total Liab | $385B | |||||
| 2024 | $40B | 13.2% (9.2%) | Opr Margin | 0.03 | Debt/Equity | 0.18 | |||||
| 2025 | $44B | 12.1% (4.9%) | PreTax Margin | 3.16 | BV/Share | 119 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $35B | 33.2% (24.2%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (25.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $55B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $32 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $69B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $86B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $108B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $135B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $169B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $3,512B | Net Worth/Share | $221 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $2,751B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $108B | $1,977 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $56B | WACC | 7.3% | 1,723 | 1,858 | 2,020 | 2,220 | 2,472 | |||
| Equity Value | $2,803B | 7.4% | 1,708 | 1,839 | 1,998 | 2,193 | 2,439 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 1,418,000,000 | 7.4% | 1,692 | 1,821 | 1,977 | 2,167 | 2,406 | ||||
| 7.9% | 1,549 | 1,656 | 1,782 | 1,934 | 2,120 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $1,977 | 8.4% | 1,427 | 1,517 | 1,621 | 1,744 | 1,893 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||