| Intrinsic Valuation of: INCY | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 7 | Market Cap | $19B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 13 | Total Asset | $7B | |||||
| 2022 | $892M | - (-) | Net Income | $1B | Total Debt | $0 | |||||
| 2023 | $449M | -49.7% (-53.8%) | EBITDA | $2B | Total Liab | $2B | |||||
| 2024 | $235M | -47.6% (-54.4%) | Opr Margin | 26.12 | Debt/Equity | - | |||||
| 2025 | $1B | 465.4% (366.4%) | PreTax Margin | 26.07 | BV/Share | 25 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $726M | 15.0% (86.1%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.86% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (15.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $1B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $63 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $2B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $36B | Net Worth/Share | $26 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $30B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $3B | $168 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $0 | WACC | 6.5% | 186 | 201 | 220 | 245 | 277 | |||
| Equity Value | $34B | 7.3% | 161 | 172 | 184 | 200 | 220 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 199,782,155 | 8.2% | 142 | 150 | 159 | 170 | 183 | ||||
| 9.0% | 128 | 134 | 140 | 148 | 157 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $168 | 9.9% | 116 | 121 | 126 | 132 | 138 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||