| Intrinsic Valuation of: INCY | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 0 | Market Cap | $13B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 344 | Total Asset | $5B | |||||
| 2022 | $568M | - (-) | Net Income | $33M | Total Debt | $0 | |||||
| 2023 | $892M | 56.9% (38.0%) | EBITDA | $408M | Total Liab | $2B | |||||
| 2024 | $449M | -49.7% (-53.8%) | Opr Margin | 0.02 | Debt/Equity | - | |||||
| 2025 | $235M | -47.6% (-54.4%) | PreTax Margin | 2.33 | BV/Share | 16 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $536M | -13.5% (-23.4%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (4.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $245M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $2 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $254M | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $265M | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $275M | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $286M | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $298M | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $6B | Net Worth/Share | $18 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $5B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $2B | $36 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $0 | WACC | 7.3% | 33 | 35 | 37 | 39 | 42 | |||
| Equity Value | $7B | 7.4% | 33 | 34 | 36 | 39 | 42 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 193,570,000 | 7.4% | 32 | 34 | 36 | 38 | 42 | ||||
| 7.9% | 30 | 32 | 33 | 35 | 38 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $36 | 8.4% | 29 | 30 | 31 | 33 | 35 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||