| Intrinsic Valuation of: FSLR | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 12 | Market Cap | $17B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 14 | Total Asset | $12B | |||||
| 2022 | $-303M | - (-) | Net Income | $1B | Total Debt | $373M | |||||
| 2023 | $-30M | 90.0% (88.9%) | EBITDA | $2B | Total Liab | $4B | |||||
| 2024 | $-785M | -2494.6% (-1947.9%) | Opr Margin | 0.33 | Debt/Equity | 0.05 | |||||
| 2025 | $-308M | 60.7% (69.0%) | PreTax Margin | 32.21 | BV/Share | 74 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $-356M | -781.3% (-596.7%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (4.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $-371M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $105 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $-385M | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $-401M | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $-417M | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $-434M | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $-451M | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $-9B | Net Worth/Share | $74 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $-8B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $2B | $-63 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $373M | WACC | 7.3% | -54 | -59 | -65 | -72 | -81 | |||
| Equity Value | $-7B | 7.4% | -54 | -58 | -64 | -71 | -79 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 107,244,000 | 7.4% | -53 | -58 | -63 | -70 | -78 | ||||
| 7.9% | -48 | -52 | -56 | -61 | -68 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $-63 | 8.4% | -44 | -47 | -50 | -55 | -60 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||