| Intrinsic Valuation of: FER | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 5 | Market Cap | $38B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 10 | Total Asset | $29B | |||||
| 2022 | $686M | - (-) | Net Income | $3B | Total Debt | $10B | |||||
| 2023 | $907M | 32.2% (21.0%) | EBITDA | $5B | Total Liab | $21B | |||||
| 2024 | $1B | 29.8% (15.1%) | Opr Margin | 0.10 | Debt/Equity | 1.24 | |||||
| 2025 | $1B | -9.3% (-15.6%) | PreTax Margin | 4.64 | BV/Share | 8 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $959M | 17.5% (6.8%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (17.5%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $1B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $46 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $3B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $59B | Net Worth/Share | $11 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $47B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $5B | $58 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $10B | WACC | 7.3% | 50 | 54 | 59 | 66 | 74 | |||
| Equity Value | $42B | 7.4% | 49 | 53 | 59 | 65 | 73 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 719,235,008 | 7.4% | 49 | 53 | 58 | 64 | 72 | ||||
| 7.9% | 44 | 47 | 52 | 57 | 63 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $58 | 8.4% | 40 | 43 | 46 | 50 | 55 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||