| Intrinsic Valuation of: FER | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 1 | Market Cap | $48B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 50 | Total Asset | $27B | |||||
| 2022 | $907M | - (-) | Net Income | $888M | Total Debt | $9B | |||||
| 2023 | $1B | 29.8% (15.1%) | EBITDA | $2B | Total Liab | $20B | |||||
| 2024 | $1B | -9.3% (-15.6%) | Opr Margin | 10.04 | Debt/Equity | 1.22 | |||||
| 2025 | $2B | 63.0% (54.9%) | PreTax Margin | 5.49 | BV/Share | 7 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $1B | 15.0% (18.1%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.34% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (15.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $2B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $12 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $3B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $55B | Net Worth/Share | $11 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $47B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $4B | $58 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $9B | WACC | 6.5% | 58 | 64 | 72 | 81 | 93 | |||
| Equity Value | $41B | 7.2% | 50 | 54 | 60 | 66 | 74 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 716,921,587 | 7.9% | 44 | 47 | 51 | 55 | 61 | ||||
| 8.6% | 38 | 41 | 44 | 47 | 52 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $58 | 9.3% | 34 | 36 | 39 | 41 | 44 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||