| Intrinsic Valuation of: FANG | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 16 | Market Cap | $41B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 9 | Total Asset | $67B | |||||
| 2022 | $2B | - (-) | Net Income | $3B | Total Debt | $12B | |||||
| 2023 | $3B | 62.4% (14.5%) | EBITDA | $8B | Total Liab | $27B | |||||
| 2024 | $1B | -55.5% (-49.0%) | Opr Margin | 0.43 | Debt/Equity | 0.30 | |||||
| 2025 | $-5B | -545.6% (-437.1%) | PreTax Margin | 40.02 | BV/Share | 129 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $54M | -179.6% (-157.2%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (4.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $56M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $147 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $58M | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $60M | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $63M | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $65M | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $68M | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $1B | Net Worth/Share | $136 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $1B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $161M | $-37 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $12B | WACC | 7.3% | -37 | -37 | -37 | -36 | -36 | |||
| Equity Value | $-11B | 7.4% | -37 | -37 | -37 | -36 | -36 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 292,168,000 | 7.4% | -37 | -37 | -37 | -36 | -36 | ||||
| 7.9% | -37 | -37 | -37 | -37 | -36 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $-37 | 8.4% | -38 | -38 | -37 | -37 | -37 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||