| Intrinsic Valuation of: EXPE | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 11 | Market Cap | $26B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 19 | Total Asset | $24B | |||||
| 2022 | $3B | - (-) | Net Income | $1B | Total Debt | $4B | |||||
| 2023 | $2B | -33.6% (-39.7%) | EBITDA | $3B | Total Liab | $22B | |||||
| 2024 | $2B | 26.3% (18.4%) | Opr Margin | 14.68 | Debt/Equity | 1.75 | |||||
| 2025 | $3B | 33.5% (24.1%) | PreTax Margin | 12.65 | BV/Share | -56 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $3B | 8.4% (0.9%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 9.76% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (8.4%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $3B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $102 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $4B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $4B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $4B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $4B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $57B | Net Worth/Share | $22 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $48B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $5B | $429 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $4B | WACC | 7.8% | 517 | 551 | 590 | 638 | 697 | |||
| Equity Value | $49B | 8.8% | 446 | 470 | 497 | 529 | 566 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 114,498,625 | 9.8% | 392 | 409 | 429 | 451 | 477 | ||||
| 10.8% | 350 | 363 | 378 | 394 | 412 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $429 | 11.8% | 316 | 326 | 337 | 350 | 363 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||