| Intrinsic Valuation of: EXPE | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 8 | Market Cap | $22B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 21 | Total Asset | $22B | |||||
| 2022 | $3B | - (-) | Net Income | $1B | Total Debt | $5B | |||||
| 2023 | $3B | -9.7% (-33.4%) | EBITDA | $3B | Total Liab | $20B | |||||
| 2024 | $2B | -33.6% (-39.7%) | Opr Margin | 0.12 | Debt/Equity | 1.87 | |||||
| 2025 | $2B | 26.3% (18.4%) | PreTax Margin | 10.40 | BV/Share | -50 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $3B | -5.7% (-18.2%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (4.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $2B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $75 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $3B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $61B | Net Worth/Share | $23 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $52B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $4B | $422 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $5B | WACC | 7.3% | 371 | 398 | 431 | 472 | 523 | |||
| Equity Value | $51B | 7.4% | 367 | 394 | 426 | 466 | 516 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 121,597,000 | 7.4% | 364 | 390 | 422 | 461 | 509 | ||||
| 7.9% | 335 | 356 | 382 | 413 | 451 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $422 | 8.4% | 309 | 328 | 349 | 374 | 404 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||