| Intrinsic Valuation of: EXC | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 3 | Market Cap | $44B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 16 | Total Asset | $108B | |||||
| 2022 | $-5B | - (-) | Net Income | $2B | Total Debt | $43B | |||||
| 2023 | $-2B | 54.2% (56.9%) | EBITDA | $8B | Total Liab | $81B | |||||
| 2024 | $-3B | -18.8% (-4.3%) | Opr Margin | 0.19 | Debt/Equity | 1.61 | |||||
| 2025 | $-2B | 43.5% (46.7%) | PreTax Margin | 10.39 | BV/Share | 20 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $-3B | 26.3% (33.1%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (25.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $-4B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $24 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $-4B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $-6B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $-7B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $-9B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $-11B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $-228B | Net Worth/Share | $27 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $-178B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $357M | $-219 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $43B | WACC | 7.3% | -196 | -208 | -223 | -241 | -264 | |||
| Equity Value | $-221B | 7.4% | -195 | -207 | -221 | -239 | -261 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 1,009,539,968 | 7.4% | -193 | -205 | -219 | -237 | -258 | ||||
| 7.9% | -180 | -190 | -201 | -215 | -232 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $-219 | 8.4% | -169 | -177 | -187 | -198 | -212 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||