| Intrinsic Valuation of: ERIE | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 11 | Market Cap | $11B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 19 | Total Asset | $3B | |||||
| 2022 | $299M | - (-) | Net Income | $559M | Total Debt | $0 | |||||
| 2023 | $289M | -3.5% (-16.8%) | EBITDA | - | Total Liab | $1B | |||||
| 2024 | $486M | 68.6% (44.4%) | Opr Margin | - | Debt/Equity | - | |||||
| 2025 | $571M | 17.4% (9.3%) | PreTax Margin | - | BV/Share | 49 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $411M | 15.0% (12.3%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.00% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (15.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $601M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $98 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $677M | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $744M | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $800M | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $840M | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $861M | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $20B | Net Worth/Share | $49 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $17B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $316M | $365 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $0 | WACC | 6.5% | 343 | 373 | 410 | 458 | 522 | |||
| Equity Value | $17B | 7.1% | 305 | 328 | 356 | 390 | 434 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 46,189,068 | 7.8% | 274 | 292 | 313 | 339 | 370 | ||||
| 8.4% | 249 | 263 | 280 | 299 | 323 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $365 | 9.0% | 229 | 240 | 253 | 269 | 287 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||