| Intrinsic Valuation of: ERIE | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 12 | Market Cap | $18B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 30 | Total Asset | $3B | |||||
| 2022 | $254M | - (-) | Net Income | $600M | Total Debt | $0 | |||||
| 2023 | $299M | 17.7% (10.2%) | EBITDA | - | Total Liab | $901M | |||||
| 2024 | $289M | -3.5% (-16.8%) | Opr Margin | - | Debt/Equity | - | |||||
| 2025 | $486M | 68.6% (44.4%) | PreTax Margin | - | BV/Share | 43 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $332M | 27.6% (12.6%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (25.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $608M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $105 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $760M | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $950M | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $2B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $39B | Net Worth/Share | $43 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $30B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $275M | $660 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $0 | WACC | 7.3% | 575 | 620 | 675 | 742 | 827 | |||
| Equity Value | $30B | 7.4% | 569 | 614 | 668 | 733 | 816 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 46,189,100 | 7.4% | 564 | 608 | 660 | 725 | 805 | ||||
| 7.9% | 516 | 552 | 595 | 646 | 709 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $660 | 8.4% | 475 | 505 | 540 | 582 | 632 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||