| Intrinsic Valuation of: DLTR | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2021 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 6 | Market Cap | $17B | |||||
| 2022 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 15 | Total Asset | $13B | |||||
| 2023 | $971M | - (-) | Net Income | $1B | Total Debt | $2B | |||||
| 2024 | $1B | 53.4% (40.9%) | EBITDA | $2B | Total Liab | $10B | |||||
| 2025 | $2B | 4.9% (0.1%) | Opr Margin | 8.52 | Debt/Equity | 0.65 | |||||
| 2026 | $1B | -10.4% (-18.8%) | PreTax Margin | 8.08 | BV/Share | 17 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $1B | 11.2% (7.4%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.00% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (11.2%) | ||||||||||
| 2027 | $2B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $53 | ||||||||
| 2028 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2032 | $2B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $47B | Net Worth/Share | $19 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $40B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $718M | $195 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $2B | WACC | 6.5% | 183 | 200 | 221 | 248 | 285 | |||
| Equity Value | $38B | 7.1% | 161 | 174 | 190 | 210 | 234 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 194,725,406 | 7.8% | 144 | 154 | 166 | 180 | 198 | ||||
| 8.4% | 130 | 138 | 147 | 158 | 171 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $195 | 9.0% | 118 | 125 | 132 | 141 | 151 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||