| Intrinsic Valuation of: DLTR | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 5 | Market Cap | $21B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 20 | Total Asset | $19B | |||||
| 2022 | $409M | - (-) | Net Income | $-3B | Total Debt | $2B | |||||
| 2023 | $971M | 137.6% (305.8%) | EBITDA | $2B | Total Liab | $15B | |||||
| 2024 | $1B | 53.4% (40.9%) | Opr Margin | 0.08 | Debt/Equity | 0.61 | |||||
| 2025 | $2B | 4.9% (0.1%) | PreTax Margin | 7.71 | BV/Share | 17 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $1B | 65.3% (115.6%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (25.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $2B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $45 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $4B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $5B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $6B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $124B | Net Worth/Share | $19 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $97B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $1B | $459 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $2B | WACC | 7.3% | 399 | 431 | 470 | 518 | 578 | |||
| Equity Value | $96B | 7.4% | 395 | 427 | 465 | 511 | 570 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 208,696,000 | 7.4% | 391 | 422 | 459 | 505 | 562 | ||||
| 7.9% | 357 | 383 | 413 | 449 | 494 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $459 | 8.4% | 328 | 349 | 374 | 404 | 439 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||