| Intrinsic Valuation of: DDOG | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 0 | Market Cap | $74B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 520 | Total Asset | $7B | |||||
| 2022 | $354M | - (-) | Net Income | $108M | Total Debt | $983M | |||||
| 2023 | $598M | 69.0% (33.0%) | EBITDA | $194M | Total Liab | $3B | |||||
| 2024 | $775M | 29.7% (2.9%) | Opr Margin | -1.29 | Debt/Equity | 0.26 | |||||
| 2025 | $915M | 18.0% (-7.6%) | PreTax Margin | -1.62 | BV/Share | 10 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $660M | 15.0% (9.4%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 10.50% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (15.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $964M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $4 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $1B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $18B | Net Worth/Share | $11 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $15B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $401M | $43 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $983M | WACC | 8.5% | 52 | 55 | 58 | 62 | 67 | |||
| Equity Value | $14B | 9.5% | 45 | 47 | 49 | 52 | 56 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 330,825,798 | 10.5% | 39 | 41 | 43 | 45 | 47 | ||||
| 11.5% | 35 | 36 | 38 | 39 | 41 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $43 | 12.5% | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||