| Intrinsic Valuation of: DDOG | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 0 | Market Cap | $46B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 282 | Total Asset | $6B | |||||
| 2022 | $251M | - (-) | Net Income | $184M | Total Debt | $979M | |||||
| 2023 | $354M | 41.1% (-13.3%) | EBITDA | $266M | Total Liab | $3B | |||||
| 2024 | $598M | 69.0% (33.0%) | Opr Margin | 0.02 | Debt/Equity | 0.36 | |||||
| 2025 | $775M | 29.7% (2.9%) | PreTax Margin | 1.76 | BV/Share | 7 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $494M | 46.6% (7.5%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (25.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $969M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $4 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $3B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $61B | Net Worth/Share | $8 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $48B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $1B | $152 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $979M | WACC | 7.3% | 132 | 142 | 155 | 171 | 190 | |||
| Equity Value | $48B | 7.4% | 131 | 141 | 153 | 168 | 187 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 319,497,984 | 7.4% | 129 | 139 | 152 | 166 | 185 | ||||
| 7.9% | 118 | 127 | 136 | 148 | 163 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $152 | 8.4% | 109 | 116 | 124 | 134 | 145 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||