| Intrinsic Valuation of: CSX | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 2 | Market Cap | $63B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 20 | Total Asset | $43B | |||||
| 2022 | $3B | - (-) | Net Income | $3B | Total Debt | $18B | |||||
| 2023 | $3B | 3.2% (-13.0%) | EBITDA | $7B | Total Liab | $30B | |||||
| 2024 | $3B | -4.6% (-3.3%) | Opr Margin | 0.37 | Debt/Equity | 1.43 | |||||
| 2025 | $3B | -16.5% (-15.9%) | PreTax Margin | 31.36 | BV/Share | 6 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $3B | -6.0% (-10.7%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (4.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $3B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $15 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $3B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $3B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $72B | Net Worth/Share | $7 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $61B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $933M | $23 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $18B | WACC | 7.3% | 20 | 22 | 24 | 27 | 31 | |||
| Equity Value | $44B | 7.4% | 19 | 21 | 24 | 27 | 31 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 1,878,550,016 | 7.4% | 19 | 21 | 23 | 26 | 30 | ||||
| 7.9% | 17 | 19 | 20 | 23 | 26 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $23 | 8.4% | 15 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||