| Intrinsic Valuation of: CSX | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 2 | Market Cap | $85B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 28 | Total Asset | $44B | |||||
| 2022 | $3B | - (-) | Net Income | $3B | Total Debt | $18B | |||||
| 2023 | $3B | -4.6% (-3.3%) | EBITDA | $6B | Total Liab | $31B | |||||
| 2024 | $3B | -16.5% (-15.9%) | Opr Margin | 33.48 | Debt/Equity | 1.38 | |||||
| 2025 | $2B | -37.0% (-35.0%) | PreTax Margin | 27.49 | BV/Share | 7 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $3B | -2.0% (-18.1%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 1.00% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 9.09% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (-2.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $2B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $15 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $2B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $25B | Net Worth/Share | $7 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $23B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $670M | $3 | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $18B | WACC | 7.1% | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |||
| Equity Value | $6B | 8.1% | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 1,858,138,856 | 9.1% | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | ||||
| 10.1% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $3 | 11.1% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||