| Intrinsic Valuation of: CASY | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 15 | Market Cap | $19B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 35 | Total Asset | $8B | |||||
| 2022 | $462M | - (-) | Net Income | $547M | Total Debt | $2B | |||||
| 2023 | $405M | -12.3% (-24.7%) | EBITDA | $1B | Total Liab | $5B | |||||
| 2024 | $371M | -8.5% (-7.1%) | Opr Margin | 0.05 | Debt/Equity | 0.69 | |||||
| 2025 | $585M | 57.6% (46.9%) | PreTax Margin | 5.00 | BV/Share | 61 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $456M | 12.3% (5.0%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (12.3%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $656M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $131 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $737M | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $827M | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $929M | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $1B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $24B | Net Worth/Share | $94 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $20B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $327M | $480 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $2B | WACC | 7.3% | 413 | 449 | 492 | 545 | 611 | |||
| Equity Value | $18B | 7.4% | 409 | 444 | 486 | 537 | 602 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 37,181,000 | 7.4% | 405 | 439 | 480 | 530 | 594 | ||||
| 7.9% | 367 | 395 | 428 | 469 | 518 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $480 | 8.4% | 334 | 358 | 385 | 418 | 457 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||