| Intrinsic Valuation of: AXON | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 2 | Market Cap | $32B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 159 | Total Asset | $7B | |||||
| 2022 | $180M | - (-) | Net Income | $125M | Total Debt | $2B | |||||
| 2023 | $130M | -27.8% (-45.1%) | EBITDA | $196M | Total Liab | $4B | |||||
| 2024 | $330M | 154.2% (90.5%) | Opr Margin | -2.23 | Debt/Equity | 0.53 | |||||
| 2025 | $75M | -77.2% (-82.9%) | PreTax Margin | -5.62 | BV/Share | 21 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $178M | 15.0% (-12.5%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 11.06% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (15.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $122M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $22 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $137M | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $151M | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $162M | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $170M | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $175M | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $2B | Net Worth/Share | $40 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $2B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $1B | $15 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $2B | WACC | 9.1% | 19 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 26 | |||
| Equity Value | $1B | 10.1% | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 21 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 80,602,077 | 11.1% | 14 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | ||||
| 12.1% | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $15 | 13.1% | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||