| Intrinsic Valuation of: AXON | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 4 | Market Cap | $59B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 184 | Total Asset | $4B | |||||
| 2022 | $74M | - (-) | Net Income | $377M | Total Debt | $680M | |||||
| 2023 | $180M | 141.9% (76.0%) | EBITDA | $437M | Total Liab | $2B | |||||
| 2024 | $130M | -27.8% (-45.1%) | Opr Margin | 0.03 | Debt/Equity | 0.29 | |||||
| 2025 | $330M | 154.2% (90.5%) | PreTax Margin | 2.47 | BV/Share | 18 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $178M | 89.4% (40.5%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (25.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $412M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $36 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $515M | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $644M | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $805M | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $1B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $26B | Net Worth/Share | $30 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $20B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $455M | $258 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $680M | WACC | 7.3% | 224 | 242 | 264 | 291 | 325 | |||
| Equity Value | $20B | 7.4% | 222 | 239 | 261 | 287 | 320 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 78,504,400 | 7.4% | 220 | 237 | 258 | 284 | 316 | ||||
| 7.9% | 200 | 215 | 232 | 252 | 277 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $258 | 8.4% | 184 | 196 | 210 | 227 | 247 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||