| Intrinsic Valuation of: ASML | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 26 | Market Cap | $311B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 30 | Total Asset | $49B | |||||
| 2022 | $10B | - (-) | Net Income | $8B | Total Debt | $4B | |||||
| 2023 | $7B | -27.6% (-36.4%) | EBITDA | $10B | Total Liab | $30B | |||||
| 2024 | $3B | -54.7% (-65.2%) | Opr Margin | 0.32 | Debt/Equity | 0.20 | |||||
| 2025 | $9B | 179.7% (172.7%) | PreTax Margin | 31.35 | BV/Share | 34 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $7B | 32.5% (23.7%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (25.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $11B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $232 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $14B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $18B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $22B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $28B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $35B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $720B | Net Worth/Share | $47 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $564B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $13B | $1,458 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $4B | WACC | 7.3% | 1,271 | 1,371 | 1,491 | 1,639 | 1,825 | |||
| Equity Value | $573B | 7.4% | 1,259 | 1,357 | 1,474 | 1,619 | 1,800 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 393,200,000 | 7.4% | 1,248 | 1,343 | 1,458 | 1,599 | 1,776 | ||||
| 7.9% | 1,142 | 1,221 | 1,314 | 1,427 | 1,565 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $1,458 | 8.4% | 1,052 | 1,118 | 1,195 | 1,286 | 1,396 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||