| Intrinsic Valuation of: ASML | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 30 | Market Cap | $579B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 49 | Total Asset | $51B | |||||
| 2022 | $7B | - (-) | Net Income | $10B | Total Debt | $3B | |||||
| 2023 | $3B | -54.7% (-65.2%) | EBITDA | $13B | Total Liab | $31B | |||||
| 2024 | $9B | 179.7% (172.7%) | Opr Margin | 34.60 | Debt/Equity | 0.14 | |||||
| 2025 | $11B | 21.4% (5.0%) | PreTax Margin | 34.23 | BV/Share | 38 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $8B | 15.0% (37.5%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 11.00% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (15.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $12B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $273 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $13B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $14B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $15B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $16B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $16B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $198B | Net Worth/Share | $51 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $166B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $13B | $456 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $3B | WACC | 9.0% | 535 | 562 | 592 | 627 | 669 | |||
| Equity Value | $176B | 10.0% | 474 | 493 | 515 | 540 | 569 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 385,417,665 | 11.0% | 425 | 440 | 456 | 475 | 496 | ||||
| 12.0% | 386 | 397 | 410 | 424 | 440 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $456 | 13.0% | 353 | 362 | 372 | 383 | 395 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||