| Intrinsic Valuation of: ARCC | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 2 | Market Cap | $15B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 11 | Total Asset | $28B | |||||
| 2022 | $-2B | - (-) | Net Income | $2B | Total Debt | $0 | |||||
| 2023 | $-1B | 44.7% (-25.2%) | EBITDA | - | Total Liab | $15B | |||||
| 2024 | $511M | 137.6% (117.0%) | Opr Margin | - | Debt/Equity | - | |||||
| 2025 | $-2B | -516.4% (-498.9%) | PreTax Margin | - | BV/Share | 19 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $-1B | -111.4% (-135.7%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (4.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $-1B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $18 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $-1B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $-2B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $-2B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $-2B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $-2B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $-36B | Net Worth/Share | $19 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $-31B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $635M | $-43 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $0 | WACC | 7.3% | -38 | -41 | -44 | -48 | -53 | |||
| Equity Value | $-30B | 7.4% | -37 | -40 | -44 | -48 | -53 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 694,182,016 | 7.4% | -37 | -40 | -43 | -47 | -52 | ||||
| 7.9% | -34 | -36 | -39 | -42 | -46 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $-43 | 8.4% | -32 | -33 | -36 | -38 | -41 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||