| Intrinsic Valuation of: ARCC | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 2 | Market Cap | $14B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 12 | Total Asset | $31B | |||||
| 2022 | $-1B | - (-) | Net Income | $1B | Total Debt | $0 | |||||
| 2023 | $511M | 137.6% (116.9%) | EBITDA | - | Total Liab | $17B | |||||
| 2024 | $-2B | -516.4% (-500.6%) | Opr Margin | - | Debt/Equity | - | |||||
| 2025 | $-2B | 19.3% (8.2%) | PreTax Margin | - | BV/Share | 20 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $-1B | 3.5% (-125.2%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.00% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (3.5%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $529M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $15 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $546M | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $563M | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $579M | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $595M | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $609M | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $14B | Net Worth/Share | $20 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $12B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $638M | $17 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $0 | WACC | 6.5% | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 25 | |||
| Equity Value | $13B | 7.1% | 15 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 21 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 718,022,845 | 7.8% | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 18 | ||||
| 8.4% | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 16 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $17 | 9.0% | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||