| Intrinsic Valuation of: AMAT | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 8 | Market Cap | $147B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 22 | Total Asset | $34B | |||||
| 2022 | $5B | - (-) | Net Income | $7B | Total Debt | $5B | |||||
| 2023 | $5B | -3.4% (-13.6%) | EBITDA | $9B | Total Liab | $15B | |||||
| 2024 | $8B | 64.7% (60.1%) | Opr Margin | 0.29 | Debt/Equity | 0.29 | |||||
| 2025 | $7B | -1.4% (-3.8%) | PreTax Margin | 28.04 | BV/Share | 19 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $6B | 20.0% (14.2%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (20.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $9B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $74 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $11B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $13B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $16B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $19B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $22B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $464B | Net Worth/Share | $24 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $369B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $8B | $463 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $5B | WACC | 7.3% | 404 | 435 | 473 | 520 | 579 | |||
| Equity Value | $371B | 7.4% | 400 | 431 | 468 | 513 | 571 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 802,497,984 | 7.4% | 396 | 427 | 463 | 507 | 563 | ||||
| 7.9% | 363 | 388 | 417 | 453 | 496 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $463 | 8.4% | 335 | 355 | 380 | 408 | 443 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||