| Intrinsic Valuation of: ALGN | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 6 | Market Cap | $11B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 26 | Total Asset | $6B | |||||
| 2022 | $277M | - (-) | Net Income | $410M | Total Debt | $0 | |||||
| 2023 | $608M | 119.6% (112.4%) | EBITDA | $823M | Total Liab | $2B | |||||
| 2024 | $623M | 2.4% (-1.1%) | Opr Margin | 14.51 | Debt/Equity | - | |||||
| 2025 | $491M | -21.2% (-21.9%) | PreTax Margin | 14.51 | BV/Share | 48 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $500M | 15.0% (29.8%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 12.80% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (15.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $567M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $54 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $638M | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $702M | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $755M | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $792M | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $812M | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $8B | Net Worth/Share | $57 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $7B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $1B | $109 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $0 | WACC | 10.8% | 123 | 127 | 132 | 137 | 143 | |||
| Equity Value | $8B | 11.6% | 114 | 118 | 122 | 126 | 130 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 71,618,127 | 12.4% | 107 | 110 | 113 | 116 | 120 | ||||
| 13.2% | 100 | 103 | 105 | 108 | 111 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $109 | 14.0% | 95 | 97 | 99 | 101 | 104 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||