| Intrinsic Valuation of: ALGN | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 5 | Market Cap | $14B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 35 | Total Asset | $6B | |||||
| 2022 | $771M | - (-) | Net Income | $421M | Total Debt | $0 | |||||
| 2023 | $277M | -64.1% (-62.0%) | EBITDA | $817M | Total Liab | $2B | |||||
| 2024 | $608M | 119.6% (112.4%) | Opr Margin | 0.17 | Debt/Equity | - | |||||
| 2025 | $623M | 2.4% (-1.1%) | PreTax Margin | 16.80 | BV/Share | 46 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $570M | 19.3% (16.4%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (19.3%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $743M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $49 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $886M | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $2B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $37B | Net Worth/Share | $53 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $30B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $1B | $425 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $0 | WACC | 7.3% | 372 | 400 | 434 | 476 | 528 | |||
| Equity Value | $31B | 7.4% | 369 | 397 | 430 | 470 | 521 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 72,484,800 | 7.4% | 366 | 393 | 425 | 465 | 515 | ||||
| 7.9% | 336 | 358 | 385 | 416 | 455 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $425 | 8.4% | 311 | 329 | 351 | 377 | 407 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||