| Intrinsic Valuation of: AFRM | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 1 | Market Cap | $22B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 60 | Total Asset | $11B | |||||
| 2022 | $-274M | - (-) | Net Income | $52M | Total Debt | $8B | |||||
| 2023 | $-109M | 60.4% (66.3%) | EBITDA | $712M | Total Liab | $8B | |||||
| 2024 | $291M | 367.8% (283.1%) | Opr Margin | 10.48 | Debt/Equity | 2.55 | |||||
| 2025 | $602M | 106.9% (49.1%) | PreTax Margin | -2.71 | BV/Share | 9 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $128M | 15.0% (132.8%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 12.09% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (15.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $638M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $10 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $718M | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $790M | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $849M | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $891M | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $913M | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $10B | Net Worth/Share | $10 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $8B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $1B | $6 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $8B | WACC | 10.1% | 10 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 17 | |||
| Equity Value | $2B | 11.1% | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 294,357,801 | 12.0% | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||||
| 13.0% | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $6 | 14.0% | -0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||