| Intrinsic Valuation of: AFRM | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | -0 | Market Cap | $29B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | - | Total Asset | $11B | |||||
| 2022 | $-274M | - (-) | Net Income | $52M | Total Debt | $8B | |||||
| 2023 | $-109M | 60.4% (66.3%) | EBITDA | $712M | Total Liab | $8B | |||||
| 2024 | $291M | 367.8% (283.1%) | Opr Margin | 0.10 | Debt/Equity | 2.55 | |||||
| 2025 | $602M | 106.9% (49.1%) | PreTax Margin | -2.71 | BV/Share | 9 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $128M | 178.4% (132.8%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (25.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $752M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $-2 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $940M | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $1B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $2B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $2B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $48B | Net Worth/Share | $11 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $37B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $1B | $110 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $8B | WACC | 7.3% | 92 | 102 | 113 | 126 | 144 | |||
| Equity Value | $31B | 7.4% | 91 | 100 | 111 | 125 | 141 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 281,825,984 | 7.4% | 90 | 99 | 110 | 123 | 139 | ||||
| 7.9% | 80 | 88 | 96 | 107 | 120 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $110 | 8.4% | 72 | 78 | 85 | 94 | 104 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||