| Intrinsic Valuation of: AFRM | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | -0 | Market Cap | $22B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | - | Total Asset | $10B | |||||
| 2022 | $-213M | - (-) | Net Income | $-518M | Total Debt | $7B | |||||
| 2023 | $-274M | -28.4% (17.2%) | EBITDA | $-2M | Total Liab | $7B | |||||
| 2024 | $-109M | 60.4% (66.3%) | Opr Margin | -0.11 | Debt/Equity | 2.41 | |||||
| 2025 | $291M | 367.8% (283.1%) | PreTax Margin | -26.22 | BV/Share | 8 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $-76M | 133.3% (122.2%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (25.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $364M | MBG Intrinsic Value | $-2 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $454M | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $568M | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $710M | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $888M | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $1B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $23B | Net Worth/Share | $10 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $18B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $1B | $44 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $7B | WACC | 7.3% | 36 | 40 | 46 | 52 | 61 | |||
| Equity Value | $13B | 7.4% | 35 | 40 | 45 | 52 | 60 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 281,825,984 | 7.4% | 35 | 39 | 44 | 51 | 59 | ||||
| 7.9% | 30 | 34 | 38 | 43 | 49 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $44 | 8.4% | 26 | 29 | 33 | 37 | 42 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||