| Intrinsic Valuation of: AEP | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 5 | Market Cap | $56B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 20 | Total Asset | $103B | |||||
| 2022 | $-2B | - (-) | Net Income | $3B | Total Debt | $39B | |||||
| 2023 | $-1B | 22.9% (34.0%) | EBITDA | $8B | Total Liab | $76B | |||||
| 2024 | $-2B | -68.0% (-73.9%) | Opr Margin | 0.23 | Debt/Equity | 1.46 | |||||
| 2025 | $-966M | 61.3% (62.7%) | PreTax Margin | 13.10 | BV/Share | 50 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $-2B | 5.4% (7.6%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (5.4%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $-2B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $46 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $-2B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $-2B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $-2B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $-2B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $-2B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $-49B | Net Worth/Share | $51 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $-41B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $203M | $-151 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $39B | WACC | 7.3% | -141 | -146 | -152 | -160 | -169 | |||
| Equity Value | $-81B | 7.4% | -141 | -146 | -152 | -159 | -168 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 534,195,008 | 7.4% | -140 | -145 | -151 | -158 | -167 | ||||
| 7.9% | -135 | -139 | -143 | -149 | -156 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $-151 | 8.4% | -130 | -134 | -137 | -142 | -147 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||