| Intrinsic Valuation of: ADP | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 11 | Market Cap | $86B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 20 | Total Asset | $53B | |||||
| 2022 | $3B | - (-) | Net Income | $4B | Total Debt | $4B | |||||
| 2023 | $4B | 42.8% (30.8%) | EBITDA | $6B | Total Liab | $47B | |||||
| 2024 | $4B | -1.1% (-7.3%) | Opr Margin | 26.32 | Debt/Equity | 0.64 | |||||
| 2025 | $4B | 22.2% (14.1%) | PreTax Margin | 24.10 | BV/Share | 3 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $4B | 13.1% (12.5%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 8.16% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (13.1%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $5B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $96 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $5B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $6B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $6B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $6B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $6B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $117B | Net Worth/Share | $15 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $99B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $3B | $245 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $4B | WACC | 6.5% | 291 | 317 | 349 | 391 | 447 | |||
| Equity Value | $98B | 7.4% | 245 | 262 | 283 | 309 | 341 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 399,734,282 | 8.3% | 211 | 224 | 238 | 256 | 276 | ||||
| 9.2% | 185 | 195 | 205 | 217 | 232 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $245 | 10.2% | 165 | 172 | 180 | 189 | 200 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||