| Intrinsic Valuation of: ADP | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 10 | Market Cap | $126B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 32 | Total Asset | $54B | |||||
| 2022 | $3B | - (-) | Net Income | $4B | Total Debt | $3B | |||||
| 2023 | $3B | -1.6% (-10.6%) | EBITDA | $6B | Total Liab | $50B | |||||
| 2024 | $4B | 42.8% (33.2%) | Opr Margin | 0.22 | Debt/Equity | 0.66 | |||||
| 2025 | $4B | -1.1% (-6.5%) | PreTax Margin | 19.59 | BV/Share | 2 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $3B | 13.4% (5.4%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (13.4%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $4B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $87 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $5B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $5B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $6B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $7B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $8B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $159B | Net Worth/Share | $11 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $129B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $3B | $318 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $3B | WACC | 7.3% | 278 | 300 | 325 | 357 | 396 | |||
| Equity Value | $129B | 7.4% | 276 | 297 | 322 | 352 | 391 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 405,923,008 | 7.4% | 273 | 294 | 318 | 348 | 386 | ||||
| 7.9% | 251 | 267 | 287 | 311 | 341 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $318 | 8.4% | 231 | 245 | 262 | 281 | 305 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||