| Intrinsic Valuation of: ADP | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 10 | Market Cap | $123B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 30 | Total Asset | $53B | |||||
| 2022 | $3B | - (-) | Net Income | $4B | Total Debt | $4B | |||||
| 2023 | $4B | 42.8% (30.8%) | EBITDA | $6B | Total Liab | $47B | |||||
| 2024 | $4B | -1.1% (-7.3%) | Opr Margin | 0.26 | Debt/Equity | 0.64 | |||||
| 2025 | $4B | 22.2% (14.1%) | PreTax Margin | 24.10 | BV/Share | 3 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $4B | 21.3% (12.5%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (21.3%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $5B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $89 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $6B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $8B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $10B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $12B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $14B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $291B | Net Worth/Share | $15 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $230B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $3B | $567 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $4B | WACC | 7.3% | 494 | 533 | 580 | 638 | 711 | |||
| Equity Value | $230B | 7.4% | 489 | 527 | 573 | 630 | 701 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 405,043,008 | 7.4% | 485 | 522 | 567 | 622 | 692 | ||||
| 7.9% | 443 | 474 | 511 | 555 | 609 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $567 | 8.4% | 408 | 434 | 464 | 500 | 543 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||