| Intrinsic Valuation of: ABNB | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 4 | Market Cap | $80B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 32 | Total Asset | $21B | |||||
| 2022 | $2B | - (-) | Net Income | $3B | Total Debt | $2B | |||||
| 2023 | $3B | 48.3% (5.8%) | EBITDA | $3B | Total Liab | $13B | |||||
| 2024 | $4B | 13.2% (-4.1%) | Opr Margin | 0.23 | Debt/Equity | 0.24 | |||||
| 2025 | $5B | 16.3% (3.9%) | PreTax Margin | 23.00 | BV/Share | 18 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $4B | 26.0% (1.9%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.5% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.4% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 7.4% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.5% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (25.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | $6B | MBG Intrinsic Value | $37 | ||||||||
| 2027 | $7B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | $9B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | $11B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | $14B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | $17B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | $358B | Net Worth/Share | $20 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | $281B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $7B | $666 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $2B | WACC | 7.3% | 580 | 626 | 680 | 748 | 833 | |||
| Equity Value | $286B | 7.4% | 575 | 619 | 673 | 739 | 821 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 429,080,000 | 7.4% | 570 | 613 | 666 | 730 | 810 | ||||
| 7.9% | 521 | 557 | 600 | 651 | 714 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | $666 | 8.4% | 480 | 510 | 546 | 587 | 637 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||