|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Intrinsic Valuation of: HINDPETRO |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y |
|
Key Statistics |
|
|
Year |
|
FCF |
FCF (FCF/Revenue) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2020 |
|
- |
- |
|
EPS (FY) |
32 |
|
Market Cap |
₹937B |
|
|
2021 |
|
- |
- (-) |
|
P/E Ratio |
14 |
|
Total Asset |
₹1,947B |
|
|
2022 |
|
₹35B |
- (-) |
|
Net Income |
₹67B |
|
Total Debt |
₹347B |
|
|
2023 |
|
₹-129B |
-472.6% (-399.6%) |
|
EBITDA |
₹185B |
|
Total Liab |
₹1,436B |
|
|
2024 |
|
₹138B |
206.7% (207.1%) |
|
Opr Margin |
0.03 |
|
Debt/Equity |
0.68 |
|
|
2025 |
|
₹46B |
-66.3% (-66.3%) |
|
PreTax Margin |
1.73 |
|
BV/Share |
234 |
|
|
5Y Average FCF |
|
₹22B |
-110.7% (-86.3%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overall Market Assumptions: |
|
|
Assumptions: |
|
|
|
P/E for No-Growth Company: |
7.0 |
|
|
|
Perpetual Growth Rate (g): |
2.5% |
|
|
|
Historical US Bond Yield: |
4.4% |
|
|
|
Discount Rate (WACC): |
7.4% |
|
|
|
Current US Bond Yield: |
3.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y |
|
Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value |
|
|
Year |
|
FCF Projection (4.0%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2026 |
|
₹48B |
|
|
MBG Intrinsic Value |
₹285 |
|
|
2027 |
|
₹50B |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2028 |
|
₹52B |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2029 |
|
₹54B |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2030 |
|
₹57B |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2031 |
|
₹59B |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Terminal Value |
|
₹1,223B |
|
|
Net Worth/Share |
₹240 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DCF Valuation |
|
DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Enterprise Value |
₹1,045B |
|
|
|
Growth Rate |
|
|
(+) Cash & Cash Equivalents |
₹2B |
|
|
₹329 |
1.5% |
2.0% |
2.5% |
3.0% |
3.5% |
|
|
(-) Total Debt |
₹347B |
|
WACC |
7.3% |
270 |
302 |
339 |
386 |
444 |
|
|
Equity Value |
₹700B |
|
7.4% |
267 |
297 |
334 |
379 |
436 |
|
|
Shares Outstanding |
2,127,820,032 |
|
7.4% |
263 |
293 |
329 |
373 |
429 |
|
|
|
|
|
7.9% |
229 |
254 |
283 |
319 |
362 |
|
|
DCF Intrinsic Value |
₹329 |
|
8.4% |
201 |
221 |
245 |
274 |
309 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|