| Intrinsic Valuation of: BPCL | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF (FCF/Revenue) | |||||||||
| 2020 | - | - | EPS (FY) | 58 | Market Cap | ₹1,215B | |||||
| 2021 | - | - (-) | P/E Ratio | 5 | Total Asset | ₹2,184B | |||||
| 2022 | ₹118B | - (-) | Net Income | ₹133B | Total Debt | ₹265B | |||||
| 2023 | ₹39B | -66.8% (-75.4%) | EBITDA | ₹290B | Total Liab | ₹1,370B | |||||
| 2024 | ₹264B | 573.7% (603.3%) | Opr Margin | 4.27 | Debt/Equity | 0.33 | |||||
| 2025 | ₹85B | -67.7% (-67.1%) | PreTax Margin | 3.46 | BV/Share | 155 | |||||
| 5Y Average FCF | ₹127B | 15.0% (153.6%) | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.48% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rate (WACC): | 9.07% | Current US Bond Yield: | 3.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection (15.0%) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | ₹112B | MBG Intrinsic Value | ₹516 | ||||||||
| 2027 | ₹126B | ||||||||||
| 2028 | ₹139B | ||||||||||
| 2029 | ₹149B | ||||||||||
| 2030 | ₹157B | ||||||||||
| 2031 | ₹161B | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | ₹2,501B | Net Worth/Share | ₹190 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | ₹2,105B | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | ₹6B | ₹432 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | ₹265B | WACC | 7.1% | 547 | 594 | 652 | 723 | 814 | |||
| Equity Value | ₹1,845B | 8.1% | 453 | 484 | 522 | 567 | 621 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 4,272,584,874 | 9.1% | 383 | 406 | 432 | 462 | 498 | ||||
| 10.1% | 330 | 346 | 365 | 387 | 412 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | ₹432 | 11.1% | 288 | 300 | 315 | 331 | 349 | ||||
| Analyzed by QuantJuice (2025) | |||||||||||